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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest shock.

However this year's competition is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still